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India clarifies $500bn US import figure

India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has clarified that the $500 billion figure for imports from the US over five years reflects India’s growing commercial needs, not a firm commitment under the new trade framework.

Goyal emphasized that India “intends to” source goods from the US where it makes sense, but there is no obligation to buy a fixed annual amount. Decisions will depend on price, quality, and demand.

The estimate comes from India’s rising import requirements, expected to reach $2 trillion over five years. Key sectors include energy (crude oil, LNG, LPG), aviation (aircraft, engines, spare parts), technology products, precious metals, and coking coal.

India already has aircraft orders with Boeing worth $50 billion, and future aviation needs could push imports to $80–100 billion. Similarly, growing tech infrastructure,  data centres, AI, and quantum computing,  will drive demand for high-end US products.

Goyal noted that India currently imports about $300 billion of goods that could come from the US. He described the $500 billion figure as conservative, reflecting intent to diversify supply chains rather than any enforced quota.

The interim trade framework also reduces tariffs and gives Indian exporters better access to the US market, benefiting sectors such as pharma, gems and jewellery, and labour-intensive industries.

The clarification addresses concerns that India might be forced into higher imports, reassuring that sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy remain protected.

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US drops 25% tariff on Indian goods

In a major relief for Indian exporters, the United States has lifted the extra 25% tariff on Indian goods that was imposed last year over India’s purchases of Russian oil. The tariff rollback, effective February 7, 2026, comes after India pledged to stop both direct and indirect imports of Russian crude, addressing a key US concern.

The decision is part of a new interim trade framework aimed at improving economic ties between the two countries. Under this agreement, the US will reduce general tariffs on Indian products to about 18%, while India will expand purchases of US goods, including energy, aircraft parts, and technology, worth up to $500 billion over the next five years.

Officials say the framework also sets the stage for closer cooperation in defence and supply chains, while easing barriers that had made it harder for Indian exports in sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and machinery to compete in the US market.

This is seen as a boost for Indian businesses, as the removal of the extra levy will make exports more competitive and strengthen long-term trade relations. Both governments described the deal as a step toward a larger bilateral trade agreement, marking a new phase of economic and strategic partnership between the two nations.

Also Read: Reliance returns to Venezuelan oil, buys 2 mn barrels

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US plans $12 bn critical minerals

The United States has announced plans to create a $12 billion strategic stockpile of critical minerals, as President Donald Trump moves to reduce the country’s heavy dependence on China for materials essential to modern industry, clean energy, and national security.

The initiative, unveiled on February 2, will function on the lines of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve but will focus on minerals instead of oil. It is designed to protect American companies from supply disruptions, price shocks, and geopolitical risks linked to China’s dominance in the global minerals market.

Under the plan, funding will come from a mix of government-backed financing and private investment. The US Export-Import Bank is expected to provide the bulk of the support, while private companies will participate by committing to buy minerals from the reserve. The stockpile will include materials such as rare earth elements, lithium, nickel, cobalt, gallium, and graphite, all of which are critical for manufacturing electric vehicles, semiconductors, renewable energy equipment, electronics, and defence systems.

China currently controls a large share of the world’s mining and, more importantly, processing capacity for many of these minerals. Recent Chinese export controls and trade tensions have raised concerns in Washington about supply security. US officials say the new reserve is meant to ensure that American manufacturers are not left vulnerable during political disputes or global supply chain disruptions.

Several major US companies, including firms from the automotive, aerospace, technology, and energy sectors, have expressed interest in participating in the programme. Commodities trading firms will help procure, store, and manage the materials, ensuring they are available when needed.

According to officials, the stockpile is expected to hold around two months’ supply of selected critical minerals. While the move is seen as an important step, experts note that stockpiling alone will not solve long-term challenges. Expanding domestic mining, improving processing capacity, and building reliable supply partnerships with allied countries will remain crucial.

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US takes 10% stake in rare earth miner $1.6 bn deal

The Trump administration has moved to strengthen domestic supply chains for critical minerals by agreeing to acquire a 10 per cent stake in USA Rare Earth in a deal valued at $1.6 billion, according to media reports.

The investment is part of a broader push to expand US-based rare earth mining and processing, reduce dependence on China, and secure materials vital for defence, clean energy, electric vehicles and advanced electronics.

Under the proposed arrangement, the US government will receive equity and warrants in USA Rare Earth, alongside providing significant debt financing. Reports indicate that the funding package includes about $1.3 billion in federal loans, with the remaining amount coming through direct equity participation. The financing is expected to be supported by federal programmes aimed at strengthening strategic industries.

USA Rare Earth is developing a rare earth mine at Sierra Blanca in Texas, in partnership with Texas Mineral Resources. The project is expected to begin production by 2028 and will focus on heavy rare earth elements, which are especially important for defence and high-performance technologies.

In parallel, the company is setting up a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, scheduled to start operations later this year. The plant will produce permanent magnets used in electric motors, wind turbines, military equipment and consumer electronics. Together, the mine and magnet facility are designed to create a fully domestic “mine-to-magnet” supply chain.

Rare earth elements consist of 17 minerals that are critical to modern technology but are largely processed and refined in China, which currently dominates global supply. US officials have repeatedly warned that this concentration poses economic and national security risks.

The investment in USA Rare Earth marks one of the largest federal interventions in the rare earth sector so far. It follows similar government actions aimed at supporting critical mineral producers and ensuring long-term supply security.

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US natural gas trading hits all-time high

US natural gas markets grabbed global attention after trading activity hit a historic high at the CME Group. On a single day, more than 2.57 million natural gas contracts were traded, setting a new record and crossing the previous peak seen in 2018. This surge shows how sharply investor interest has risen as weather and supply concerns shake energy markets.

The main reason behind this jump is severe winter weather across large parts of the United States. Extremely low temperatures have increased the demand for natural gas, which is widely used for heating homes, offices, and industries. As people consume more gas to stay warm, prices tend to rise, and traders rush in to manage risks or take advantage of price movements.

Cold weather has also affected supply. In some oil- and gas-producing regions, freezing conditions disrupted production, reducing the amount of gas available in the market. This imbalance between rising demand and tight supply has made prices more volatile, prompting heavy trading in futures and options.

Natural gas prices climbed sharply over two consecutive days, posting gains of over 20 percent at one point. Many traders who had earlier bet on prices falling were forced to buy back contracts to limit losses, adding further momentum to the rally. As a result, short-term price swings became larger than usual.

Data from energy trackers showed that gas output in the Lower 48 US states dipped in January, while overall demand, including exports, rose strongly. The US remains a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and global buyers continue to rely on American supplies, adding pressure to the market.

The impact was not limited to the US Gas prices in Europe also moved higher, as low storage levels and ongoing geopolitical tensions kept energy markets nervous. Any disruption or rise in US prices often influences global gas rates.

For investors, experts say caution is important. While high volatility can offer trading opportunities, it also increases risk. Keeping an eye on weather forecasts, storage data, and production trends will be key to understanding where prices may head next in the short term.

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US-Taiwan strike $250 billion trade deal

The United States and Taiwan have reached a landmark trade agreement worth $250 billion, aiming to strengthen economic ties and boost high-tech investment. The deal reduces tariffs on Taiwanese goods entering the US and secures substantial commitments from Taiwanese companies to invest in American industries, especially semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and energy.

Under the agreement, the US tariff on most Taiwanese imports will drop from 20% to 15%, bringing Taiwan’s trade treatment closer to that of other major Asia-Pacific partners, including Japan and South Korea. Certain goods, such as generic medicines and aircraft parts, will be fully exempt from tariffs. These measures are designed to encourage the expansion of Taiwanese production in the US while making imports more affordable for American consumers.

A major focus of the pact is strengthening domestic semiconductor manufacturing. The US Commerce Department described the deal as a strategic move to “reshore” advanced chip production and create high-tech industrial zones in the country. Taiwanese firms investing in US production facilities will benefit from favorable tariff treatment and support for establishing cutting-edge technology hubs.

The agreement is particularly significant for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which plans to expand its US operations, including new facilities in Arizona. This expansion aligns with Taiwan’s broader commitment to invest in American industries, supporting jobs and innovation in critical technology sectors.

While the pact has been welcomed in Taipei and Washington, China has criticized the agreement, reiterating its opposition to moves that it sees as undermining the “one-China” principle. Beijing has called on the US to adhere to its stance on Taiwan.

The deal still needs approval from Taiwan’s legislature and comes amid legal discussions in the US regarding presidential authority over tariffs. Analysts say that, once implemented, the agreement could reshape the global semiconductor supply chain, strengthen U.S.-Taiwan economic relations, and attract billions in investment, benefiting both countries’ technology and energy sectors.

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US stock futures dip ahead of inflation data

US stock futures were slightly lower in early trading as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data and corporate earnings expected this week.

Market attention is focused on the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), an important inflation report that can influence future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve. If inflation remains sticky, interest rates could stay higher for longer.

The fourth-quarter earnings season is also set to begin, led by major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Their results will offer clues on how companies managed higher interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty.

Ahead of these events, futures linked to the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were trading marginally lower, showing a cautious mood rather than sharp selling.

Markets have been volatile in recent weeks as investors scale back expectations of early interest rate cuts, following strong economic data. For now, traders are adopting a wait-and-watch approach, looking for clearer signals from inflation numbers and earnings updates.

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US lets India buy Venezuelan oil

The United States has signaled that India can resume buying crude oil from Venezuela, a source that was largely blocked due to US sanctions. US officials said Indian companies may import Venezuelan oil, but all sales and payments will be controlled and monitored by Washington. The detailed rules and approvals are still being finalized.

India was a regular buyer of Venezuelan crude before sanctions halted trade. With Indian refiners reducing Russian oil imports due to US pressure, Venezuelan oil offers a politically acceptable alternative. Reliance Industries, India’s largest refining company, said it would consider importing Venezuelan oil again once US regulatory approval is clear. Other refiners, including Indian Oil Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum, have also expressed interest.

Earlier, Reliance received permits to import about 63,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan oil in early 2025. Imports stopped in May 2025 after tighter sanctions. Venezuelan crude is heavy and requires special processing, so Indian refiners are expected to start gradually once approvals are in place.

Experts say resuming Venezuelan oil imports could help India reduce dependence on Russian crude while staying within US rules. However, all shipments will remain under Washington’s oversight, meaning India cannot freely trade or sell the oil.

The move reflects a significant shift in US policy. By allowing India to buy Venezuelan oil under strict control, Washington maintains strategic oversight while opening an old trade route. For India, this could ease supply challenges, give refiners access to discounted heavy crude, and reduce reliance on other countries.

While promising, the process will take time. Indian refiners will wait for clear regulatory guidance and permits. The actual volumes and timeline for imports will depend on US approvals and Venezuela’s ability to supply the crude under international scrutiny.

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Trump orders $200bn mortgage bonds to cut rates

US President Donald Trump has announced a plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage‑backed securities (MBS) to help lower mortgage rates and make housing more affordable. The announcement was made on his social media platform, Truth Social.

The plan aims to reduce monthly mortgage payments for homebuyers by increasing demand for mortgage bonds, which could push interest rates slightly lower. Trump said the government‑sponsored agencies have enough funds to carry out the purchases without using extra federal money. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) confirmed that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will implement the plan, though details on timing and methods were not shared.

This move comes amid ongoing concerns about housing affordability. Mortgage rates, while slightly lower than last year, remain high, with the average 30‑year rate around 6.2%. Rising rates and a limited housing supply have made buying a home more difficult for many Americans.

Analysts have given mixed reactions. Some believe the plan could lower mortgage rates slightly, but others say $200 billion is a small part of the $11 trillion U.S. mortgage bond market and may have limited effect on overall housing costs. Questions have also been raised about the accuracy of Trump’s claims regarding the GSEs’ cash reserves.

The announcement follows other housing-related measures from the Trump administration, including proposals to limit institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Officials say this initiative is designed to help middle-class Americans afford homes and provide relief to the housing market ahead of economic challenges.

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US withdraws from 66 global bodies under Trump

The United States has announced its withdrawal from 66 international organisations, including several United Nations bodies and the India- and France-backed International Solar Alliance (ISA), marking a major shift in its approach to global cooperation. The decision follows a presidential directive issued by US President Donald Trump, citing the need to protect national interests, sovereignty and taxpayer money.

According to official statements, the list includes 31 UN-linked organisations and 35 non-UN bodies. These cover a wide range of areas such as climate change, renewable energy, social development, labour standards, peacebuilding and scientific cooperation. Among the prominent exits are climate-related platforms like the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, along with the International Solar Alliance, which focuses on promoting solar energy in tropical countries.

The US administration has argued that many of these organisations are inefficient, overlap in their work, or promote policies that do not align with American priorities. Federal agencies have been instructed to end participation and funding in these bodies, subject to legal procedures, and to reassess international commitments going forward.

Supporters of the move say it allows the US to focus resources at home and avoid obligations they believe offer limited returns. However, the decision has triggered concern among diplomats, climate experts and global institutions. Critics warn that stepping away from multilateral platforms could weaken international efforts on climate action, public health, labour rights and conflict resolution.

There are also geopolitical implications. Analysts note that the US withdrawal may leave a leadership gap in several global forums, potentially allowing countries such as China to expand their influence by increasing funding and engagement. This concern has been highlighted particularly in the context of UN agencies and climate-related institutions.

India-led initiatives, including the International Solar Alliance, are expected to continue their work despite the US exit, but experts say reduced American participation could slow progress and funding momentum.

The move continues a broader trend seen under the Trump administration, which has previously questioned or withdrawn from major international agreements. As the withdrawals take effect, global partners are assessing how the absence of the US will impact international cooperation and whether existing institutions can adapt to a changing geopolitical landscape.

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