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US edits India trade deal factsheet

The White House has revised its factsheet on the proposed India-US interim trade deal, making key changes to language on agricultural imports, investment commitments and digital taxation following concerns flagged by New Delhi.

In the earlier version of the document, the US had stated that India would cut or eliminate tariffs on a list of American agricultural products, including tree nuts, fruits, soybean oil, wine, spirits and “certain pulses.” The mention of pulses,  a politically sensitive crop in India,  drew attention because India is the world’s largest producer and consumer of lentils, chickpeas and other pulses, and domestic farmers depend heavily on tariff protection.

In the updated factsheet, the specific reference to “certain pulses” has been removed. Instead, the language now broadly mentions improved access for a “wide range of US agricultural products,” without naming individual commodities.

Another notable revision relates to India’s proposed purchases of American goods. The original text said India was “committed” to buying more than $500 billion worth of US products over the next five years, including energy, coal and technology equipment. The revised version softens this to say India “intends” to purchase such goods, signalling that the figure is indicative rather than a binding obligation. Mentions of agricultural goods within this purchase commitment have also been omitted.

Changes were also made to the section on digital trade. The earlier draft suggested India would remove or roll back its digital services tax. The revised document now says both countries will work toward negotiating digital trade rules, bringing the language in line with prior joint statements.

Sources indicated that the corrections were made to accurately reflect what had been mutually agreed upon.

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US soybean prices drop as Brazil boosts supply

US soybean prices fell on Monday, stepping back from a recent rise that pushed them to multi-month highs. The main reasons were profit-taking by traders and an increasing supply from Brazil’s soybean harvest, which is putting downward pressure on global prices.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, the March soybean contract dropped from last week’s high of around $11.37 per bushel. Prices had jumped earlier after hints that China might buy more U.S. soybeans, which are a major export for American farmers.

However, China has not yet made large purchases. Brazilian soybeans are cheaper and more available, especially during their harvest season. This is making Chinese buyers prefer Brazilian soybeans over US supplies.

Brazil is expecting a record soybean crop this year, with strong exports already underway. These large supplies are reducing the need for China to buy more from the US, even with recent diplomatic talks encouraging sales.

US soybeans are still more expensive than Brazilian ones, which makes them less attractive for Chinese buyers, even though some small purchases have been made.

Other crops like corn and wheat also saw slight price drops, as there were no new factors to push prices higher.

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China’s BYD challenges Trump’s tariffs at US court

Chinese electric vehicle and clean-energy major BYD has taken a significant legal step in the United States, filing a lawsuit against the federal government to challenge tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.

The case, filed in the US Court of International Trade in New York, seeks refunds for import duties paid since April and questions the legal basis used to impose the levies. BYD’s US subsidiaries argue that the tariffs were introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a law meant for national security emergencies, not for imposing broad trade barriers.

The emergency law does not explicitly allow the government to levy import tariffs. BYD is asking the court to order the repayment of duties already paid and to safeguard its right to future refunds if the tariffs are ruled invalid.

While BYD does not sell passenger cars in the US, it has a growing footprint in the country through its electric buses, trucks, batteries, energy storage systems and solar products. Its manufacturing facility in Lancaster, California, employs around 750 workers, making the company an active contributor to local jobs and clean-energy infrastructure.

The legal move places BYD among a rising number of global companies challenging Trump’s trade policies. The dispute also comes as the US Supreme Court considers a separate case that could ultimately decide whether emergency powers can be used to justify such tariffs.

For Washington, the case revives a sensitive debate around trade protectionism and executive authority. For BYD, it is both a financial and strategic decision, aimed at recovering costs while seeking clarity on the rules governing global trade.

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India clarifies $500bn US import figure

India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has clarified that the $500 billion figure for imports from the US over five years reflects India’s growing commercial needs, not a firm commitment under the new trade framework.

Goyal emphasized that India “intends to” source goods from the US where it makes sense, but there is no obligation to buy a fixed annual amount. Decisions will depend on price, quality, and demand.

The estimate comes from India’s rising import requirements, expected to reach $2 trillion over five years. Key sectors include energy (crude oil, LNG, LPG), aviation (aircraft, engines, spare parts), technology products, precious metals, and coking coal.

India already has aircraft orders with Boeing worth $50 billion, and future aviation needs could push imports to $80–100 billion. Similarly, growing tech infrastructure,  data centres, AI, and quantum computing,  will drive demand for high-end US products.

Goyal noted that India currently imports about $300 billion of goods that could come from the US. He described the $500 billion figure as conservative, reflecting intent to diversify supply chains rather than any enforced quota.

The interim trade framework also reduces tariffs and gives Indian exporters better access to the US market, benefiting sectors such as pharma, gems and jewellery, and labour-intensive industries.

The clarification addresses concerns that India might be forced into higher imports, reassuring that sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy remain protected.

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US drops 25% tariff on Indian goods

In a major relief for Indian exporters, the United States has lifted the extra 25% tariff on Indian goods that was imposed last year over India’s purchases of Russian oil. The tariff rollback, effective February 7, 2026, comes after India pledged to stop both direct and indirect imports of Russian crude, addressing a key US concern.

The decision is part of a new interim trade framework aimed at improving economic ties between the two countries. Under this agreement, the US will reduce general tariffs on Indian products to about 18%, while India will expand purchases of US goods, including energy, aircraft parts, and technology, worth up to $500 billion over the next five years.

Officials say the framework also sets the stage for closer cooperation in defence and supply chains, while easing barriers that had made it harder for Indian exports in sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and machinery to compete in the US market.

This is seen as a boost for Indian businesses, as the removal of the extra levy will make exports more competitive and strengthen long-term trade relations. Both governments described the deal as a step toward a larger bilateral trade agreement, marking a new phase of economic and strategic partnership between the two nations.

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US plans $12 bn critical minerals

The United States has announced plans to create a $12 billion strategic stockpile of critical minerals, as President Donald Trump moves to reduce the country’s heavy dependence on China for materials essential to modern industry, clean energy, and national security.

The initiative, unveiled on February 2, will function on the lines of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve but will focus on minerals instead of oil. It is designed to protect American companies from supply disruptions, price shocks, and geopolitical risks linked to China’s dominance in the global minerals market.

Under the plan, funding will come from a mix of government-backed financing and private investment. The US Export-Import Bank is expected to provide the bulk of the support, while private companies will participate by committing to buy minerals from the reserve. The stockpile will include materials such as rare earth elements, lithium, nickel, cobalt, gallium, and graphite, all of which are critical for manufacturing electric vehicles, semiconductors, renewable energy equipment, electronics, and defence systems.

China currently controls a large share of the world’s mining and, more importantly, processing capacity for many of these minerals. Recent Chinese export controls and trade tensions have raised concerns in Washington about supply security. US officials say the new reserve is meant to ensure that American manufacturers are not left vulnerable during political disputes or global supply chain disruptions.

Several major US companies, including firms from the automotive, aerospace, technology, and energy sectors, have expressed interest in participating in the programme. Commodities trading firms will help procure, store, and manage the materials, ensuring they are available when needed.

According to officials, the stockpile is expected to hold around two months’ supply of selected critical minerals. While the move is seen as an important step, experts note that stockpiling alone will not solve long-term challenges. Expanding domestic mining, improving processing capacity, and building reliable supply partnerships with allied countries will remain crucial.

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US takes 10% stake in rare earth miner $1.6 bn deal

The Trump administration has moved to strengthen domestic supply chains for critical minerals by agreeing to acquire a 10 per cent stake in USA Rare Earth in a deal valued at $1.6 billion, according to media reports.

The investment is part of a broader push to expand US-based rare earth mining and processing, reduce dependence on China, and secure materials vital for defence, clean energy, electric vehicles and advanced electronics.

Under the proposed arrangement, the US government will receive equity and warrants in USA Rare Earth, alongside providing significant debt financing. Reports indicate that the funding package includes about $1.3 billion in federal loans, with the remaining amount coming through direct equity participation. The financing is expected to be supported by federal programmes aimed at strengthening strategic industries.

USA Rare Earth is developing a rare earth mine at Sierra Blanca in Texas, in partnership with Texas Mineral Resources. The project is expected to begin production by 2028 and will focus on heavy rare earth elements, which are especially important for defence and high-performance technologies.

In parallel, the company is setting up a magnet manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, scheduled to start operations later this year. The plant will produce permanent magnets used in electric motors, wind turbines, military equipment and consumer electronics. Together, the mine and magnet facility are designed to create a fully domestic “mine-to-magnet” supply chain.

Rare earth elements consist of 17 minerals that are critical to modern technology but are largely processed and refined in China, which currently dominates global supply. US officials have repeatedly warned that this concentration poses economic and national security risks.

The investment in USA Rare Earth marks one of the largest federal interventions in the rare earth sector so far. It follows similar government actions aimed at supporting critical mineral producers and ensuring long-term supply security.

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US natural gas trading hits all-time high

US natural gas markets grabbed global attention after trading activity hit a historic high at the CME Group. On a single day, more than 2.57 million natural gas contracts were traded, setting a new record and crossing the previous peak seen in 2018. This surge shows how sharply investor interest has risen as weather and supply concerns shake energy markets.

The main reason behind this jump is severe winter weather across large parts of the United States. Extremely low temperatures have increased the demand for natural gas, which is widely used for heating homes, offices, and industries. As people consume more gas to stay warm, prices tend to rise, and traders rush in to manage risks or take advantage of price movements.

Cold weather has also affected supply. In some oil- and gas-producing regions, freezing conditions disrupted production, reducing the amount of gas available in the market. This imbalance between rising demand and tight supply has made prices more volatile, prompting heavy trading in futures and options.

Natural gas prices climbed sharply over two consecutive days, posting gains of over 20 percent at one point. Many traders who had earlier bet on prices falling were forced to buy back contracts to limit losses, adding further momentum to the rally. As a result, short-term price swings became larger than usual.

Data from energy trackers showed that gas output in the Lower 48 US states dipped in January, while overall demand, including exports, rose strongly. The US remains a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and global buyers continue to rely on American supplies, adding pressure to the market.

The impact was not limited to the US Gas prices in Europe also moved higher, as low storage levels and ongoing geopolitical tensions kept energy markets nervous. Any disruption or rise in US prices often influences global gas rates.

For investors, experts say caution is important. While high volatility can offer trading opportunities, it also increases risk. Keeping an eye on weather forecasts, storage data, and production trends will be key to understanding where prices may head next in the short term.

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US-Taiwan strike $250 billion trade deal

The United States and Taiwan have reached a landmark trade agreement worth $250 billion, aiming to strengthen economic ties and boost high-tech investment. The deal reduces tariffs on Taiwanese goods entering the US and secures substantial commitments from Taiwanese companies to invest in American industries, especially semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and energy.

Under the agreement, the US tariff on most Taiwanese imports will drop from 20% to 15%, bringing Taiwan’s trade treatment closer to that of other major Asia-Pacific partners, including Japan and South Korea. Certain goods, such as generic medicines and aircraft parts, will be fully exempt from tariffs. These measures are designed to encourage the expansion of Taiwanese production in the US while making imports more affordable for American consumers.

A major focus of the pact is strengthening domestic semiconductor manufacturing. The US Commerce Department described the deal as a strategic move to “reshore” advanced chip production and create high-tech industrial zones in the country. Taiwanese firms investing in US production facilities will benefit from favorable tariff treatment and support for establishing cutting-edge technology hubs.

The agreement is particularly significant for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which plans to expand its US operations, including new facilities in Arizona. This expansion aligns with Taiwan’s broader commitment to invest in American industries, supporting jobs and innovation in critical technology sectors.

While the pact has been welcomed in Taipei and Washington, China has criticized the agreement, reiterating its opposition to moves that it sees as undermining the “one-China” principle. Beijing has called on the US to adhere to its stance on Taiwan.

The deal still needs approval from Taiwan’s legislature and comes amid legal discussions in the US regarding presidential authority over tariffs. Analysts say that, once implemented, the agreement could reshape the global semiconductor supply chain, strengthen U.S.-Taiwan economic relations, and attract billions in investment, benefiting both countries’ technology and energy sectors.

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US stock futures dip ahead of inflation data

US stock futures were slightly lower in early trading as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data and corporate earnings expected this week.

Market attention is focused on the December Consumer Price Index (CPI), an important inflation report that can influence future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve. If inflation remains sticky, interest rates could stay higher for longer.

The fourth-quarter earnings season is also set to begin, led by major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Their results will offer clues on how companies managed higher interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainty.

Ahead of these events, futures linked to the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were trading marginally lower, showing a cautious mood rather than sharp selling.

Markets have been volatile in recent weeks as investors scale back expectations of early interest rate cuts, following strong economic data. For now, traders are adopting a wait-and-watch approach, looking for clearer signals from inflation numbers and earnings updates.

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