Category: Beyond

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Beyond

Silver up 200%, gold regains appeal

Silver prices have surged nearly 200 percent over the past 12 months, far outperforming gold, but rising volatility is now prompting investors to shift attention back to the yellow metal. Analysts note that silver’s rapid rally, driven by strong industrial demand and tight supply, has made prices more unstable.

As market uncertainty increased at the start of 2026, global silver ETFs saw outflows, while gold continued to attract steady investments due to its reputation as a safer hedge. The gold-to-silver price ratio has also fallen sharply, indicating that silver may be overextended compared to gold.

Last week, both silver and gold ETFs witnessed a sharp fall on Thursday but rebounded strongly the following day. Several silver ETFs jumped 10–12 percent, while gold ETFs also gained as bullion prices recovered.

So far this month, silver prices have risen about 28 percent on the MCX, while gold has gained nearly 14 percent, even as equity markets remain under pressure.

Also Read: Sensex sees volatile moves, Nifty stays close to 25,300

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Rupee slides 1% to 91.6 per dollar

The Indian rupee fell sharply to a record low of 91.74 against the US dollar, before recovering slightly to 91.62 on January 22, 2026, highlighting ongoing volatility in the currency market. This marks a roughly 1% decline in a single session, underscoring sustained pressure on India’s external sector.

The fall is driven by strong demand for dollars, elevated crude oil prices, and continued foreign fund outflows from Indian equities. Geopolitical tensions and global trade uncertainties have also added to investor caution, weakening risk appetite for emerging markets like India. While a partial recovery occurred after positive international cues, analysts warn that the rupee remains vulnerable to renewed external shocks.

A depreciating rupee has immediate economic consequences. Importers face higher costs for crude oil, electronic goods, and other essential commodities, which could feed into inflation. Industries relying on imported raw materials will see rising input costs, potentially reducing margins or raising prices for consumers. Dollar-denominated payments, including overseas education, travel, and debt servicing, also become more expensive, squeezing household and corporate budgets.

The Reserve Bank of India may need to consider intervention strategies if the rupee’s slide persists, as prolonged weakness could impact foreign investment inflows, inflation targets, and broader economic growth. Businesses and consumers alike are expected to feel the impact as import costs rise and pricing pressures intensify across sectors.

Despite the slight intra-day recovery, market watchers caution that the rupee could remain under stress due to structural trade deficits and persistent capital outflows. The current scenario reinforces the interconnectedness of global and domestic economic factors, emphasizing the need for prudent fiscal and monetary management.

Also Read: India weighs joining Trump’s Gaza peace board

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India weighs joining Trump’s Gaza peace board

India is evaluating an invitation to participate in a US-backed international board aimed at overseeing Gaza’s reconstruction and post-conflict economic stabilization. The proposed Gaza Board of Peace is designed to coordinate funding, infrastructure rebuilding, and governance reforms, creating a platform for global and regional investors to engage in reconstruction projects.

The initiative, proposed by former US President Donald Trump, has already secured commitments from Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and several other Arab and Islamic countries, signaling potential for broad international collaboration. The board is expected to facilitate financial mobilization, infrastructure development, and humanitarian aid delivery, presenting opportunities for private and public sector partnerships in the region.

Indian authorities are reviewing the strategic and economic implications of joining the board. Participation could allow India to contribute to rebuilding efforts while gaining influence in regional development projects and strengthening diplomatic ties with Middle Eastern partners. Officials have noted that alignment with India’s long-standing position on West Asia and humanitarian diplomacy will be key factors in the final decision.

The board is expected to complement, or potentially run alongside, existing United Nations-led reconstruction and economic development frameworks, raising questions about coordination and governance. International observers suggest that effective implementation could unlock billions in aid and investment for Gaza, creating avenues for companies and development agencies to engage in infrastructure, energy, and logistics projects.

New Delhi’s decision will weigh geopolitical considerations alongside economic opportunities, balancing its global diplomatic stance with the potential to participate in a high-profile reconstruction and investment initiative.

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Trump ends Europe tariff threat after Arctic deal

President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he is dropping planned tariffs on several European countries, following what he described as reaching a “framework of a future deal” with NATO on Greenland and Arctic security. Trump made the announcement at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he has been attending discussions with world leaders.

Trump said the framework, agreed with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, establishes a plan for cooperation on Arctic security and makes the previously threatened tariffs unnecessary. He framed the agreement as a major achievement for the US, describing it as a “very productive meeting” that could benefit both the US and its NATO allies.

Earlier, Trump had threatened tariffs on eight European countries to pressure them into accepting US influence over Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark. While his earlier comments included unusual suggestions about acquiring Greenland, he emphasized in Davos that the US would not use military force and that the framework is focused on security cooperation, not sovereignty.

The announcement had a positive effect on global markets, with US stock indices rising after news of the tariff cancellation. Analysts said it eased fears of a trade confrontation between the US and European nations.

However, Denmark’s leadership rejected Trump’s interpretation of the agreement. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stated that Greenland’s sovereignty is not negotiable and that any cooperation with the US would strictly focus on security in the Arctic. Greenland’s government also reinforced that the island is not for sale, reflecting long-standing European concerns over Trump’s earlier remarks.

Also Read: Coursera cofounder urges India to boost AI skills

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Gold trades at ₹1.56 lakh, silver strengthens by ₹100

Gold and silver prices in India posted marginal gains on Thursday, reflecting cautious buying interest amid mixed signals from global markets. According to market data, gold prices increased by ₹10 per 10 grams, while silver prices rose by ₹100 per kilogram in early trade.

In the domestic bullion market, 24-carat gold was priced at ₹1,56,610 per 10 grams. The yellow metal traded at the same level in major cities such as Mumbai and Kolkata. In Delhi, gold was slightly higher at ₹1,56,760 per 10 grams, while Chennai saw prices at ₹1,57,270. The small uptick indicates a stable trend, with prices holding near record-high levels seen in recent weeks.

Prices of 22-carat gold also moved up marginally. The metal was quoted at ₹1,43,560 per 10 grams in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru and Hyderabad. In Delhi, the 22-carat gold rate stood at ₹1,43,710, while Chennai recorded a slightly higher price of ₹1,44,160 per 10 grams. Jewellers noted that retail demand remains selective, as elevated prices have kept many buyers cautious.

Silver prices, meanwhile, continued to stay firm. The white metal was trading at ₹3,30,100 per kilogram in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata, marking a ₹100 increase from the previous session. Chennai continued to quote silver at a premium, with prices at ₹3,45,100 per kilogram, reflecting higher local demand and logistics costs.

Market experts said domestic bullion prices are being influenced by a combination of international trends, currency movements and investor sentiment. Globally, gold and silver prices have shown some softness due to a stronger US dollar and reduced immediate geopolitical concerns. However, ongoing economic uncertainty and expectations around interest rate decisions have helped limit sharp declines.

Silver, in particular, has seen strong interest in recent months, supported by both investment demand and its growing use in industrial applications such as electronics and renewable energy. Gold, traditionally seen as a safe-haven asset, continues to attract investors looking to hedge against inflation and market volatility.

Also Read: Sensex jumps 300 points, Nifty reclaims 25,250

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India exports first guided Pinaka rockets abroad

India has taken a significant step in expanding its defence exports with the flagging off of the first batch of guided Pinaka rockets from Nagpur, Maharashtra, by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. The export marks a major milestone for India’s defence manufacturing sector, highlighting the country’s growing footprint in the global defence market.

The shipment is part of a Rs 2,000 crore contract signed in September 2022 with Armenia, which will receive four batteries of the Pinaka multi-barrel rocket launcher system, along with ammunition and support equipment. This is the first international sale of the guided variant, which offers improved accuracy and extended strike range, positioning India as a competitive player in advanced missile systems.

Developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and produced in collaboration with Solar Defence & Aerospace Limited (SDAL), the Pinaka system incorporates advanced navigation and guidance technology, enhancing battlefield precision. Analysts note that the system’s performance has drawn interest from multiple global markets, reflecting growing confidence in India’s defence manufacturing capabilities.

Earlier deliveries of unguided and extended-range variants to Armenia were completed by late 2024. The current guided variant export strengthens India’s strategic partnership with Armenia and demonstrates the country’s ability to deliver high-technology systems internationally.

Rajnath Singh emphasised at the flag-off event that India is transitioning from a defence importer to a reliable global exporter, leveraging domestic manufacturing and innovation. The event also highlights increasing private sector participation, a key government focus under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative to boost defence exports and self-reliance.

The launch of guided Pinaka rockets underlines India’s emerging role as a strategic defence supplier, supporting both its economic and geopolitical objectives while boosting investor confidence in the country’s defence manufacturing sector.

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India-EU on the verge of a game-changing deal

Negotiations between India and the European Union are moving steadily toward a landmark free trade agreement. Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission President, described the prospective pact as historic, with wide-reaching benefits for businesses, workers, and consumers in both regions.

The agreement would connect nearly 2 billion people and cover about a quarter of the world’s GDP. It is expected to make it easier for Indian companies to enter European markets while giving European businesses greater access to India’s growing economy. Key areas include clean technologies, digital services, healthcare, and sustainable manufacturing.

Von der Leyen is expected to visit New Delhi later this month to finalise talks ahead of the India-EU summit, where progress toward signing the deal is likely to be formally announced. Leaders emphasised that political momentum is strong, although challenges such as tariffs, regulatory differences, and sensitive sectors remain to be resolved.

The India-EU trade talks, which began in 2007 and were revived in 2022, aim to deepen economic cooperation and remove barriers in goods, services, and investment. Observers say a successful agreement would be a major boost for Indian exporters and European investors alike, strengthening the long-term partnership between the two regions.

Also Read: China’s economy grows 5% in 2025

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IMF raises India’s FY26 growth forecast to 7.3%

India’s economy is showing renewed strength, prompting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to raise its growth forecast for the 2025–26 financial year to 7.3 per cent, up from its earlier estimate of 6.6 per cent. The upgrade reflects stronger-than-expected performance in recent quarters and growing confidence in India’s economic momentum.

In its latest assessment, the IMF noted that India’s economy has benefited from resilient domestic demand, improved corporate performance and steady activity across key sectors such as manufacturing, services and infrastructure. A better third-quarter showing and continued momentum into the final months of the fiscal year played a significant role in the revised outlook.

This positive view broadly aligns with official Indian estimates. The National Statistical Office has projected GDP growth of 7.4 per cent for the year ending March 2026, indicating that the economy is holding up well despite global uncertainties.

However, the IMF also offered a note of caution. While near-term prospects remain strong, growth is expected to slow to around 6.4 per cent in FY27 and FY28. According to the Fund, some of the factors supporting current growth, such as post-pandemic recovery effects and supportive fiscal measures, are likely to fade over time, leading to a more moderate but stable growth trajectory.

Even with this expected moderation, India is projected to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies globally, outperforming many advanced and emerging peers. The IMF also pointed to easing inflation pressures, with price levels expected to move closer to the Reserve Bank of India’s target range, helped by lower food inflation and better supply conditions.

In essence, the IMF’s revised forecast paints a balanced picture: confidence in India’s current growth story, coupled with a reminder that sustaining high growth over the long term will require continued reforms, investment and policy discipline.

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China’s economy grows 5% in 2025

China’s economy grew by 5 per cent in 2025, meeting the government’s annual growth target despite sluggish domestic activity and ongoing trade tensions with the United States. The growth was supported primarily by strong exports, which helped the country navigate challenges from slower consumer spending, low investment, and deflationary pressures.

Data released by Chinese authorities show that GDP rose 5 per cent year‑on‑year, although growth slowed in the fourth quarter to 4.5 per cent, marking the weakest quarterly expansion since the country reopened after the pandemic. Nominal GDP, which does not account for inflation, rose only 4 per cent, highlighting the pressure on domestic economic activity.

Exports remained the key driver of growth. Demand from overseas markets, including Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, helped offset a slowdown in shipments to the United States caused by higher tariffs. China’s trade surplus reached about $1.2 trillion in 2025, underlining the strength of its external sector.

Domestic consumption and investment, however, showed uneven performance. Retail sales rose only modestly, while fixed‑asset and private investment weakened. Deflation continued for a third straight year, limiting consumer spending and overall confidence. Industrial production held up better, but the domestic economy’s recovery remained fragile.

Policy makers in Beijing acknowledge the imbalance between strong exports and weak internal demand. Plans under the new five‑year strategy aim to strengthen household consumption and the service sector, but authorities are cautious about large-scale stimulus due to local government debt and inflation concerns.

Analysts warn that China’s heavy reliance on exports makes growth vulnerable to future global trade disruptions. Sustainable long-term expansion will depend on boosting domestic demand and implementing structural reforms to encourage private investment and household spending.

Also Read: UAE signs $2.5bn LNG deal with HPCL

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Global markets fall on US Greenland tariff threats

Global markets fell this week after US President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on several European countries over his Greenland plans. Investors became cautious, pulling back from stocks and turning to safer assets like gold and silver.

In Asia, major stock markets dropped around 0.5%, while US S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq futures were all pointing to lower openings. The declines came amid uncertainty as the US observed the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, limiting regular trading.

European markets also fell sharply, with France’s CAC 40 and Germany’s DAX among the hardest hit. Traders worried about possible import tariffs on European goods, which could hurt trade and corporate profits.

Bond markets reacted too. US Treasury prices fell slightly, pushing yields higher. Japanese long-term bonds also saw small increases in yields, reflecting the global ripple of the tariff news.

The US dollar strengthened against most currencies, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver rose to record levels before slightly easing. This showed that investors were seeking security amid growing trade uncertainties.

Experts said the tariff threats come at a sensitive time, with markets already balancing central bank policies, corporate earnings, and other global tensions. Potential retaliation from Europe could further affect trade and investor confidence.

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