Tag: IMF

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Leaders

IMF Chief warns Iran conflict surging inflation

The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that rising tensions in West Asia could push up global inflation if the conflict leads to a sustained increase in oil prices.

Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, said the ongoing crisis in the region is already creating uncertainty in energy markets and could have wider economic consequences. Speaking at an international symposium hosted by Japan’s finance ministry in Tokyo, she urged policymakers to prepare for unexpected developments.

Georgieva cautioned governments and central banks to “think of the unthinkable” as geopolitical tensions remain unpredictable. She said policymakers should remain vigilant and be ready to respond quickly if the situation worsens.

According to the IMF chief, a sharp rise in oil prices could translate into higher inflation globally. She noted that if oil prices increase by about 10 per cent and remain elevated for a prolonged period, it could add roughly 0.4 percentage points to global inflation.

Energy markets have been particularly sensitive to developments in West Asia because the region plays a crucial role in global oil supply. Any disruption to production or shipping routes could quickly affect energy prices worldwide.

One key concern for markets is the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of the world’s oil shipments pass. Any disruption along this route could lead to further volatility in global energy markets.

Georgieva said the global economy has shown resilience in recent years despite multiple shocks, including the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts. However, she warned that prolonged instability in West Asia could once again challenge economic recovery and complicate efforts to control inflation.

She added that governments and financial institutions should continue monitoring the situation closely and prepare policy responses if needed.

The IMF is currently assessing the possible economic impact of the conflict on different countries. Georgieva said the organisation will provide a clearer analysis in its upcoming global economic assessments, which will examine how the crisis could influence growth, inflation and financial stability in the months ahead.

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Beyond

IMF raises India’s FY26 growth forecast to 7.3%

India’s economy is showing renewed strength, prompting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to raise its growth forecast for the 2025–26 financial year to 7.3 per cent, up from its earlier estimate of 6.6 per cent. The upgrade reflects stronger-than-expected performance in recent quarters and growing confidence in India’s economic momentum.

In its latest assessment, the IMF noted that India’s economy has benefited from resilient domestic demand, improved corporate performance and steady activity across key sectors such as manufacturing, services and infrastructure. A better third-quarter showing and continued momentum into the final months of the fiscal year played a significant role in the revised outlook.

This positive view broadly aligns with official Indian estimates. The National Statistical Office has projected GDP growth of 7.4 per cent for the year ending March 2026, indicating that the economy is holding up well despite global uncertainties.

However, the IMF also offered a note of caution. While near-term prospects remain strong, growth is expected to slow to around 6.4 per cent in FY27 and FY28. According to the Fund, some of the factors supporting current growth, such as post-pandemic recovery effects and supportive fiscal measures, are likely to fade over time, leading to a more moderate but stable growth trajectory.

Even with this expected moderation, India is projected to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies globally, outperforming many advanced and emerging peers. The IMF also pointed to easing inflation pressures, with price levels expected to move closer to the Reserve Bank of India’s target range, helped by lower food inflation and better supply conditions.

In essence, the IMF’s revised forecast paints a balanced picture: confidence in India’s current growth story, coupled with a reminder that sustaining high growth over the long term will require continued reforms, investment and policy discipline.

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1 Minute-Read

IMF shifts India to crawl-like regime

The IMF has reclassified India’s exchange-rate system as a “crawl-like arrangement,” replacing last year’s “stabilised” tag.

This change means the rupee is now allowed to move slowly within a small range instead of staying close to a fixed level. The shift comes after the rupee weakened and touched a record low of ₹89.49 per US dollar in November.

The IMF noted that the Reserve Bank of India has been intervening less in the forex market, allowing natural currency movements.

The Fund said this flexibility can help India handle global shocks better and still expects strong economic growth ahead.

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Beyond

India’s $5 trillion goal delayed, growth strong

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says India’s economy continues to grow steadily, but the country may reach the $5 trillion GDP mark a year later than previously expected. The new estimate now points to fiscal year 2028‑29, instead of 2027‑28. The main reasons for the delay are a weaker rupee and slower growth in GDP when measured in dollar terms.

Despite the delay, India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world. Strong domestic demand, robust consumer spending, and healthy growth in services and manufacturing are helping the economy stay on track. Inflation is also under control, which supports stable prices and living costs.

The IMF forecasts that India’s economy will grow by 6.6% in FY2025‑26 and 6.2% in FY2026‑27. Even with the $5 trillion milestone pushed back, the underlying growth story remains strong. Policymakers will need to focus on sustaining domestic growth, managing inflation, and keeping the rupee stable to maintain momentum.

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