India’s economy is showing renewed strength, prompting the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to raise its growth forecast for the 2025–26 financial year to 7.3 per cent, up from its earlier estimate of 6.6 per cent. The upgrade reflects stronger-than-expected performance in recent quarters and growing confidence in India’s economic momentum.
In its latest assessment, the IMF noted that India’s economy has benefited from resilient domestic demand, improved corporate performance and steady activity across key sectors such as manufacturing, services and infrastructure. A better third-quarter showing and continued momentum into the final months of the fiscal year played a significant role in the revised outlook.
This positive view broadly aligns with official Indian estimates. The National Statistical Office has projected GDP growth of 7.4 per cent for the year ending March 2026, indicating that the economy is holding up well despite global uncertainties.
However, the IMF also offered a note of caution. While near-term prospects remain strong, growth is expected to slow to around 6.4 per cent in FY27 and FY28. According to the Fund, some of the factors supporting current growth, such as post-pandemic recovery effects and supportive fiscal measures, are likely to fade over time, leading to a more moderate but stable growth trajectory.
Even with this expected moderation, India is projected to remain one of the fastest-growing major economies globally, outperforming many advanced and emerging peers. The IMF also pointed to easing inflation pressures, with price levels expected to move closer to the Reserve Bank of India’s target range, helped by lower food inflation and better supply conditions.
In essence, the IMF’s revised forecast paints a balanced picture: confidence in India’s current growth story, coupled with a reminder that sustaining high growth over the long term will require continued reforms, investment and policy discipline.
