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India’s GDP growth at 7.8% in Oct–Dec quarter

India’s economy grew 7.8% in the October–December 2025–26 quarter, according to revised GDP data using 2022–23 as the base year. The update incorporates broader data sources and improved methodology, giving a clearer picture of economic activity.

The National Statistics Office also raised the full-year growth forecast to 7.6%, reflecting resilience in consumption, manufacturing, and services despite global uncertainties. Analysts say the figures highlight continued domestic demand and industrial output strength.

India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies, with the new data expected to improve the reliability of future economic reporting.

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India’s GDP likely to grow 7.4% in FY26

India’s economy is expected to grow at 7.4 percent in the financial year 2025‑26, according to the government’s first advance GDP estimates. This is higher than last year’s growth of 6.5 percent, signaling a strong economic recovery.

The nominal GDP, which factors in price changes, is projected to rise by 8 percent. The services sector is leading the growth, driven by finance, real estate, trade, transport, and communication. Manufacturing and construction are expected to expand around 7 percent, while agriculture may grow at about 3.1 percent.

Despite global economic challenges, strong domestic demand, investments, and supportive policy measures are helping the economy stay on track. These estimates will guide the upcoming Union Budget, offering a roadmap for fiscal planning in the year ahead.

This early outlook reflects India’s resilience and continued momentum, keeping the country on track for steady growth in FY26.

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India’s GDP rises 8.2% in Q2, six-quarter high

India’s GDP recorded a robust 8.2% growth in the second quarter (July–September) of FY 2025–26, marking the fastest expansion in six quarters and exceeding market expectations. The performance comes even before the full impact of the recently announced GST rate cuts has been reflected in the economy.

The secondary sector, which includes manufacturing and industry, grew by around 8.1%, while the tertiary sector, encompassing services such as trade, finance, and transport,  expanded by approximately 9.2%. The primary sector, which covers agriculture, forestry, and mining, posted a modest growth of 3.1%.

Analysts said the growth was supported by strong rural demand, increased government spending, and early export shipments. Consumption showed an uptick ahead of the festive season, partially driven by expectations of lower tax rates under the GST regime.

Despite the upbeat headline numbers, some areas of the economy remain subdued. Urban demand and private investment have yet to pick up significantly, suggesting that growth is currently more dependent on government-led and rural spending.

Economists said sustaining this momentum in the coming months will require a revival in private sector investment and broader consumption across both rural and urban areas.

The Q2 growth indicates that India’s economy continues to show resilience in the face of global uncertainties. If domestic consumption, private investment, and exports continue to strengthen, the country could maintain a healthy growth trajectory in the second half of the fiscal year.

Overall, the numbers reflect a combination of strong rural activity, government support, and industrial recovery, showing that the economy is well-positioned to benefit from policy measures such as GST cuts while navigating ongoing challenges in urban markets and private investment.

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India’s GDP to grow 6.5% in FY26

India’s economy is on track for a healthy growth of 6.5% in the next fiscal year (FY26), according to ratings agency S&P Global, which expects growth to rise slightly to 6.7% in FY27. The agency says a mix of government policies, strong household demand, and a good monsoon are helping keep the economy on a steady path.

S&P highlighted that recent tax relief has given middle-class households more money to spend. The government raised the income tax rebate ceiling from ₹7 lakh to ₹12 lakh, freeing up roughly ₹1 lakh crore in extra spending power. Along with cuts in GST on many goods and a lower interest rate, these steps are encouraging people to buy more and businesses to invest.

The monsoon has also helped, boosting farm incomes and rural spending, which are important for the broader economy. At the same time, inflation is expected to stay low, around 3.2%, meaning people’s money retains its value, supporting further consumption.

While domestic demand is strong, S&P warns that India faces challenges from global trade uncertainties. Rising U.S. tariffs and slow demand from some major economies could affect Indian exporters. Companies that rely heavily on foreign markets might feel the impact if global conditions don’t improve.

S&P also noted that, to maintain long-term growth, India needs to revive investment in infrastructure and industry. Trade deals with major economies, especially the U.S., could help by attracting investment and creating jobs in sectors that export goods and services.

Overall, S&P’s outlook paints a positive picture of India’s economy. Growth is being driven mainly by people spending more at home, supported by government policies and favorable weather. But experts say that keeping the momentum will require a balance between domestic demand and global competitiveness.

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