The Indian rupee extended its losses on Monday, slipping by 4 paise to trade at 90.24 per US dollar in early trade, as global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions weighed on market sentiment.
A key factor pressuring the rupee has been the escalating crisis in Venezuela, which has triggered risk aversion across global markets. Fears of further US action in the region have pushed investors towards safe-haven assets, strengthening the US dollar and putting emerging market currencies, including the rupee, under renewed stress.
The rupee’s move below the 90 level is seen as a significant psychological marker for traders. Strong dollar demand from importers and continued foreign portfolio investor outflows have further reduced support for the domestic currency. With global investors cutting exposure to riskier assets, capital inflows into emerging markets have remained weak.
Market participants expect the rupee to face a challenging week ahead as geopolitical developments unfold and global investors assess the broader impact of the Venezuela situation on energy markets, global trade and financial stability. Any escalation could keep the dollar firm and limit recovery in risk-sensitive currencies.
Attention is also focused on upcoming US economic data, which could shape expectations around interest rates and monetary policy. Strong data may reinforce dollar strength, adding to pressure on the rupee in the near term.
Domestically, traders are watching crude oil prices and equity market movements for cues. While softer oil prices and resilient equities can provide some cushion, they have so far been outweighed by global risk factors.
The Reserve Bank of India is expected to closely monitor currency movements and may intervene to smooth excessive volatility if required. Overall, the rupee’s early-week decline highlights the impact of global geopolitical risks, particularly the Venezuela crisis, on currency markets at the start of 2026.
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