China, the world’s largest silver producer, will introduce tighter export controls on silver starting January 1, 2026. Under the new rules, only companies with special licences will be allowed to export silver, effectively limiting the amount of metal available to global buyers. Analysts say this move could further tighten global supply, which is already under pressure due to rising industrial demand.
China accounts for a significant portion of the world’s refined silver supply. The metal is widely used in electronics, solar photovoltaic panels, electric vehicles, and other industrial applications. Exchange-traded silver inventories in China are reported to be at their lowest levels since 2015, indicating a supply crunch that could be aggravated by the new export regulations.
Global demand for silver has been growing steadily. Industrial demand alone is estimated to exceed global annual production by hundreds of millions of ounces, creating persistent supply deficits. At the same time, investors have been buying silver as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainty, further increasing competition for the limited available supply.
Silver prices have already shown strong gains in response to supply concerns. On global exchanges, silver recently traded near $60 per ounce, while Indian domestic prices reached record levels above ₹80,000 per kilogram. Analysts predict that tighter Chinese exports could support further price increases, as fewer shipments enter international markets.
The policy does not impose a complete ban on exports but introduces stricter licence requirements. The ultimate impact will depend on how many licences are issued and how effectively the rules are enforced. Still, the move is expected to create a tighter market for both industrial buyers and investors, boosting silver’s value in the near term.
China’s licence-based silver export restrictions applicable from January 1, 2026, are likely to reduce global supply, intensify competition, and push silver prices higher.
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