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New GDP series reshapes India’s economy

Construction turns more formal, while hotels and manufacturing show deeper household presence

India’s new GDP series is changing more than just the way economic growth is measured. The revised national accounts are also offering a different picture of who drives activity across key sectors, with construction emerging as more corporate-led while hotels, restaurants and some other services appear more dependent on household enterprises.

The latest details released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) show that private corporations now account for about 35.3% of construction Gross Value Added (GVA), compared with just 16.3% under the earlier 2011-12 base-year series. The household sector’s share has fallen to around 58.5% from nearly 79%.

The change does not mean construction activity itself has suddenly become more corporate. Rather, the new GDP methodology has reassigned a larger portion of existing economic activity to companies based on improved data sources and estimation methods.

Under the new 2022-23 base-year series, private corporate construction GVA for 2022-23 has been estimated at Rs 7.46 lakh crore, more than double the Rs 3.53 lakh crore estimated under the old series. Household-sector construction GVA, meanwhile, has been revised down to Rs 12.37 lakh crore from Rs 17.12 lakh crore.

Overall construction GVA has changed much less, falling 2.7% to Rs 21.13 lakh crore from Rs 21.71 lakh crore under the previous estimates. This highlights an important point: the revision is largely about how economic activity is classified and measured, rather than a sudden change in the actual size of the sector.

The picture is almost the opposite in hotels and restaurants.

Household enterprises now account for about 60.6% of GVA in the sector, up from 54.6% earlier. The private corporate share has declined to 39.1% from 44.9%. At the same time, total GVA in hotels and restaurants has increased 5.7% to Rs 2.80 lakh crore.

The shift reflects the greater use of newer data sources to capture activity outside the formal corporate sector. MoSPI has used company filings for the private corporate segment, while workforce information from the Periodic Labour Force Survey and value-added estimates from the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises are being used to estimate household activity.

Road transport has also seen a significant change in its sectoral composition. Private corporate GVA has been revised sharply lower, while the household sector continues to account for the larger share of activity.

Manufacturing, by contrast, has seen a relatively smaller change. Household manufacturing GVA has been revised upwards by about 10%, while private corporate GVA has fallen 3.7%. The household share has consequently increased to around 14.8% from 13.3%, while the corporate share has declined to about 78.8% from 80.6%. Overall manufacturing GVA is only 1.5% lower under the revised estimates.

One of the most significant methodological changes is the wider use of double deflation in manufacturing. The new GDP series uses this approach in 28 of the sector’s 30 categories.

Double deflation separately adjusts the value of output and the cost of inputs for price changes. This matters because input prices and output prices do not always move together. Using separate price measures can therefore give a more precise estimate of real GVA and economic growth.

The two manufacturing categories where double deflation has not yet been applied are the processing and preservation of meat, fish, fruits, vegetables, oils and fats, and the manufacture of pharmaceutical and medicinal products. MoSPI said high import content in these categories makes it difficult to match inputs with appropriate item-level producer prices. Work is under way to extend the method to these categories as well.

The revised GDP framework also provides a fresh look at household wealth. Household savings held in the form of gold and silver ornaments for 2022-23 have been estimated at Rs 1.65 lakh crore, more than double the earlier estimate of Rs 64,504 crore.

That figure increased to Rs 1.72 lakh crore in 2023-24 and then to Rs 2.18 lakh crore in 2025-26. The sharp rise in gold prices during 2025 and early 2026 contributed to the increase in the value of these household assets.

The new series uses 2022-23 as its base year, replacing the earlier 2011-12 base. MoSPI says the revision was designed to capture structural changes in the economy, incorporate newer data sources, improve estimation methods and provide greater sectoral detail.

The methodology was released seven months after the new GDP series was introduced in February. The framework was subsequently updated in August to incorporate the latest Producer Price Index and Index of Industrial Production series.

Taken together, the revisions provide a more detailed view of India’s economic structure. They suggest that some sectors, particularly construction, may be more formal and corporate-led than previously estimated, while several services continue to rely heavily on household and unincorporated enterprises.

The changes are important because GDP is not only a measure of how fast the economy grows. It also helps policymakers understand where that growth is coming from, how businesses and households contribute to economic activity, and how India’s formal and informal sectors are evolving.

 

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