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Alibaba shares plunge after $10.2 bn AI funding plan

Heavy AI spending raises dilution concerns as investors question Alibaba’s path to stronger returns

Alibaba shares fell sharply on Monday after the Chinese technology giant announced an HK$80 billion ($10.2 billion) share placement to fund its artificial intelligence expansion. The move is aimed at strengthening Alibaba’s AI infrastructure, computing capacity and technology portfolio, but investors reacted negatively to the size and discounted price of the fundraising.

Alibaba shares fell as much as 11% in Hong Kong trading, marking their steepest decline in more than a year. The stock later pared some losses but remained under pressure as investors weighed the long-term benefits of the company’s AI strategy against the immediate impact of issuing new shares.

The company said it would issue 710 million new shares at HK$112.70 apiece, raising about HK$80 billion. The price represented an 8.4% discount to Alibaba’s Friday closing price of HK$123. The deal is the largest-ever primary follow-on share offering by a company listed in Hong Kong.

Alibaba has been spending heavily to build its position in the global AI race. The company wants to expand across the AI technology stack, including computing infrastructure, chips, cloud services, large language models and AI applications.

The new funds will support that strategy at a time when competition is intensifying among technology companies in China and overseas. Alibaba is also trying to strengthen Alibaba Cloud, which has become a key part of its AI growth plans.

The company has previously committed 380 billion yuan ($56.5 billion) over three years to AI infrastructure and related investments. A large portion of that spending has already been deployed, highlighting how quickly the cost of competing in artificial intelligence is increasing.

Alibaba has argued that demand for its AI and cloud services is growing strongly. It has also shortened its expected payback period for AI-related infrastructure to around 2.5 years, suggesting management believes rising demand can eventually translate into stronger returns on its investment.

However, the immediate concern for shareholders is dilution. By issuing 710 million new shares, Alibaba is increasing the total number of shares in circulation. Existing shareholders will therefore own a slightly smaller percentage of the company unless the additional investment generates enough growth and profits to offset the dilution.

The discounted issue price added to those concerns. Alibaba shares were trading well above the placement price before the announcement, prompting investors to question why the company needed to raise such a large amount of capital through an equity offering at a discount.

The strong market reaction shows that investors are increasingly demanding evidence that Alibaba’s huge AI spending will generate attractive returns rather than simply increasing costs.

The fundraising comes after Alibaba reported a sharp decline in quarterly profit. The company’s net profit fell 75% year-on-year, even as revenue increased. Heavy investment in AI infrastructure was a major factor behind the pressure on earnings.

Despite the profit decline, Alibaba’s underlying business continues to expand. The company reported 9% revenue growth for the June quarter, indicating that its core businesses remain resilient.

Its cloud and AI operations have become particularly important to the growth story. Investors are increasingly viewing Alibaba not simply as an e-commerce company but as a broader technology platform competing in cloud computing, artificial intelligence and digital services.

That transition, however, requires substantial investment. Alibaba is effectively making a major financial bet that AI will become one of its most important growth engines. The company needs to spend heavily on data centres, computing power and AI models before those investments can generate meaningful commercial returns.

Alibaba’s decision comes as Chinese technology companies accelerate their AI investments. Competition is growing around large language models, cloud computing and AI applications, with companies seeking to develop systems that can compete with leading global models.

The pressure is not limited to China. Alibaba is also competing indirectly with major US technology companies such as Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet, all of which are spending heavily on AI infrastructure.

This has created a difficult environment for investors. While artificial intelligence is widely viewed as a major long-term growth opportunity, the enormous capital required to build the necessary infrastructure has raised questions about profitability and the eventual return on investment.

Alibaba’s share sale therefore represents both an opportunity and a risk. The company gains access to significant capital without relying entirely on its existing cash reserves. But shareholders are being asked to accept dilution at a time when quarterly profits are already under pressure.

Despite the negative reaction in the stock market, demand for the share placement was strong. Reports said the order book attracted around $28 billion in demand, almost three times the amount Alibaba was seeking to raise. The strong interest suggests institutional investors remain confident in Alibaba’s long-term AI and cloud prospects despite concerns over near-term earnings.

Alibaba Chairman Joe Tsai and CEO Eddie Wu also bought shares separately in the market, according to Hong Kong filings, signalling continued confidence from the company’s top leadership.

The company is now under pressure to show that its AI investments can deliver results. Investors will closely track growth in Alibaba Cloud, AI-related revenue, capital expenditure and free cash flow in the coming quarters.

For Alibaba, the message from Monday’s sell-off is clear. Investors are willing to finance its AI ambitions, but they want proof that the spending can translate into sustainable growth and higher profitability.

The company has secured the money needed for its next phase of expansion. The bigger challenge will be turning that $10.2 billion AI funding into returns strong enough to justify the dilution and restore investor confidence.

 

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